League strength
Competitive balance is used to calculate the uncertainty of outcome. We use this per league, as some leagues are dominated by a few clubs.
Home advantage coefficient
Home advantage reflects how difficult it is for away teams to compete in a given league. As you can see, teams in Germany benefit more from playing at home and the competitive environment is shaped more heavily by venue effects.
| country | Played | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 18 | 10 (55,55%) | 3 (16,66%) | 5 (27,77%) |
| Spain | 41 | 20 (48,78%) | 11 (26,82%) | 10 (24,39%) |
| Turkey | 36 | 16 (44,44%) | 7 (19,44%) | 13 (36,11%) |
| England | 30 | 12 (40,00%) | 10 (33,33%) | 8 (26,66%) |
| Italy | 30 | 12 (40,00%) | 4 (13,33%) | 14 (46,66%) |
| Portugal | 43 | 17 (39,53%) | 12 (27,90%) | 14 (32,55%) |
| France | 27 | 7 (25,92%) | 8 (29,62%) | 12 (44,44%) |
| Holland | 44 | 11 (25,00%) | 11 (25,00%) | 22 (50,00%) |
Average goals per match
Average goals per match is a direct measure of how tight or open a league is, making it a simple but powerful competitive balance indicator (When goals are scarce, matches are tighter and small differences matter more). In Holland most goals are scored on average.
| country | Played | Total scored | Avg scored | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holland | 44 | 177 | 4,02 | 74 (41,80%) | 103 (58,19%) |
| Germany | 18 | 71 | 3,94 | 43 (60,56%) | 28 (39,43%) |
| France | 27 | 84 | 3,11 | 41 (48,80%) | 43 (51,19%) |
| Spain | 41 | 123 | 3,00 | 71 (57,72%) | 52 (42,27%) |
| Turkey | 36 | 105 | 2,91 | 58 (55,23%) | 47 (44,76%) |
| England | 30 | 85 | 2,83 | 48 (56,47%) | 37 (43,52%) |
| Italy | 30 | 82 | 2,73 | 39 (47,56%) | 43 (52,43%) |
| Portugal | 43 | 113 | 2,62 | 55 (48,67%) | 58 (51,32%) |
Home audience advantage
Home advantage isn't just a myth : the numbers prove it!
Across last season (2025-2026), looking at all the different leagues we follow, home teams won 43.16% of all matches:
| Home wins | Draws | Away wins |
|---|---|---|
| 43.16% | 26.68% | 30.55% |
Check the following table how stadium atmosphere, crowd pressure, and sheer volume of support can tilt the balance on the pitch:
| audience | home wins | draws | away wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10.000 | 34.97% | 29.37% | 35.66% |
| 10.001-20.000 | 38.69% | 28.50% | 32.82% |
| 20.001-30.000 | 34.63% | 30.37% | 35.00% |
| 30.001-40.000 | 44.18% | 23.63% | 32.19% |
| 40.001-50.000 | 59.22% | 20.78% | 20.00% |
| 50.001-60.000 | 53.09% | 22.16% | 24.74% |
| 60.001-70.000 | 54.29% | 21.43% | 24.29% |
| 70.001-80.000 | 70.24% | 15.48% | 14.29% |
| 80.001-90.000 | 76.47% | 11.76% | 11.76% |