Understanding the Rate Form System in Soccer Analytics

The Rate Form System has its roots in Professor Elo's influential book, The Rating of Chessplayers, which was skillfully adapted for soccer by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth in their book, The Punter's Revenge (Chapman and Hall). This system provides an insightful way to evaluate team performance throughout a soccer season.

Key Features of the Rate Form System

  • Points Totals: Each team maintains a points total that reflects its current playing form. These totals are updated with each match, allowing for a continuous assessment of performance.
  • Consistency Across Seasons: Points totals carry forward from one season to the next, enabling historical comparisons. This feature enhances the depth of analysis, as fans and analysts can track trends over time.
  • Average Points Maintenance: The average points total for all teams remains close to 1000, providing a stable benchmark for performance evaluation.
  • Points Contribution: In each match, both home and away teams contribute to a "kitty." The winning team receives the entire points kitty, while teams that draw share the kitty. Specifically, the home team contributes 7% of its total points, while the away team contributes 5%.
  • Home Advantage: The system takes into account the home advantage by giving more weight to the home team's points. The difference between home and away points is used to rate match forecasts effectively.
  • Promoted Teams: Newly promoted teams start with the average points of relegated teams, ensuring the overall average remains at 1000.

    • Historical Insights

    The Rate Form System excels in tracking performance over time, as points are not recalculated at the beginning of a new season. For example, consider AC Milan’s performance in Serie A. In the '93-'94 season, they claimed the championship, as indicated in red, but the following season saw them finishing in fourth place.
    rateform AC Milan This visual representation demonstrates how the system incorporates historical data, illustrating that a first-place finish in 1999 may not hold the same weight as one in 1996. The longer a team maintains a strong sequence, the higher its rating, allowing for a nuanced understanding of form over time.

    Conclusion

    The Rate Form System is an invaluable tool for analyzing soccer performance, providing insights that go beyond simple win-loss records. By integrating historical data and accounting for variables like home advantage, this system helps fans, analysts, and bettors make informed predictions and assessments throughout the soccer season.